The September USDA WASDE report offered little in the way of bullish signals, reinforcing the outlook of large crops and relatively heavy ending stocks. For U.S. corn and soybeans, seeded area was revised higher for 2025-26, pushing harvested acres and production up. Although corn yield was trimmed slightly, it still points to a record harvest, underscoring the scale of supply expected this season.
Wheat estimates were also marked higher across major exporters. Australia’s production was raised by 3.5 million tonnes to 34.0 million, with exports up 2 million. Canada saw a 1-million-tonne boost to 36.0 million tonnes, though exports were unchanged at 27 million. The EU’s crop was lifted nearly 2 million tonnes to 140.1 million, while Russia and Ukraine were increased by 1.5 and 1 million tonnes respectively. Curiously, despite the larger output, USDA lowered export projections for both Russia and Ukraine, a move that highlights the likelihood of sharper competition for global sales.
No meaningful changes were made to China’s wheat, corn, or soybean balance sheets, leaving demand signals unchanged. Overall, the report is best viewed as confirmation of abundant supply rather than offering any new surprises—an outcome that leans bearish heading into the fall.
